Statistical Analysis of Trade-Development Linkage in Nigeria: The COVID-19 Era and Beyond

Abstract

Aim of the Study: In this study, the trade-development impact of COVID-19 is examined for the period spanning 2020-2021 covering 24 months. Some economic variables were converted appropriately into monthly basis to give similar frequency of  data.

Methodology: The theoretical framework us based on the system theory and thereafter the two-stage least regression technique applied was applied on the relationship between each of trade and per capita income and the COVID-19 related variables including total confirmed cases, total death  retarded in one way or the other trade relation and per capita income growth. Total number of laboratory tests retarded both trade and per capita income level during the period. Sensitivity analysis shows contrary effects of export and import trade on per capita income.

Findings: Research findings show that COVID-19 related variables including total confirmed cases, total death retarded in one way or the other trade relation and per capita income growth. Total number of laboratory tests retarded both trade and per capita income level during the period. Besides, sensitivity analysis shows contrary effects of export and import trade on per capita income; a reason attributed to overdependence and low domestic production. In all the economic variables employed as explanatory, only exchange rate showed a significant positive impact on trade and per capita income level.

Conclusion: The study concluded that the economy should encourage huge domestic production to reduce over dependence during and beyond the COVID-19 era. This aside from increasing domestic consumption will encourage revenue inflow that can serve as bail out in the period of global scarcity of funds.